Odds by prize tier
BRONDER 🌊🏆
I have been onboarding some people to PoolTogether V4, and a question that I always get is:
"If I have demposited 10K and I already have 1:1 odds of a getting a daily prize, why should I deposit any more USDC?"
What this people are not seeing is that the changes of getting the big prize or any other prize from other tiers are really affected if they deposit more money. Therefore, allowing the UI to show the % chance of getting each specific prize tier could help a lot and give clarity to the web users.
This could be implemented as a hyperlink in the in the "1 in X" chances. That hyperlink opens a popup on that same page that displays the detailed odds. If we want to make it even fancier, this popup could have several windows showing daily, weekly or yearly odds.
By the way, I think that people understand better % chances than 1 in X chances. Also, exact odds are really hard to calculate, but an aproximation will definitely be worth it for users.
Dylan DesRosier
Just to reiterate, showing accurate odds for an upcoming draw is hard. The prize distribution isn't set until the draw happens, so it will be always be an estimate at best, and users don't read, so estimates can be dangerous. If they see a number for odds, don't win prizes at that rate and don't know it's an estimate -> they get mad. I was hesitant to show the current daily/weekly odds since they are very rough estimates of winning a single prize, regardless of the prize tier, it's confusing.
However, getting as accurate odds as we can in a proper table for each prize tier for a users current deposit is something very high on my todo list.
Taliskye
Display 1 in X daily prize, then also display the highest tier prize that has a chance worse than 1 in 30 or something so people can see how "close" they are to a "big" prize for their pot.
Like if someone puts in 1k right now "DAILY ODDS || ANY PRIZE: 1 in 6.86 $2500: 1 in 25997 $500: 1 in 8666 $200: 1 in 2167 $50: 1 in 542 $10: 1 in 136 $5: 1 in 34.35 $1: 1 in 8.97" from discord bot. So it's display the 1 in 6.86 for a daily prize, and also 1 in 34.35 for $5 a day. Effectively trying to encourage people to deposit enough to get that next big prize once a month.
BRONDER 🌊🏆
After further thinking, I believe that maybe % chances will look really difficult to read in big prizes, so 1 in X may still be our best way to show them.
D
DaBoom
Couldn't agree more.